DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.14.1.188-199

PEMODELAN REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK BIRESPON SPLINE TRUNCATED PADA FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERSENTASE PENDUDUK MISKIN DAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA DI PROVINSI PAPUA

*Ramadhaniah Akhyar  -  Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA Universitas Lambung Mangkurat, Indonesia
Nur Salam publons  -  Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat, Indonesia
Yeni Rahkmawati orcid scopus  -  Program Studi Statistika, Fakultas MIPA, Universitas Lambung Mangkurat, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright 2025 Jurnal Gaussian under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
In 2022, Papua Province has the highest percentage of poor people in Indonesia (26.03%) and an Human Development Index of 62.25%, indicating challenges in improving welfare. These two indicators are interrelated, with the hope that an increase in HDI can reduce poverty. Factors that influence both include life expectancy (X1), gini ratio (X2), and GRDP percapita(X3) . This study uses birresponse nonparametric regression model with a truncated spline approach to model the relationship. The GCV method was used to determine the optimum knot points, with the best model at three knot points of order 1, resulting in a minimum GCV of 17.90415 and R² of 85.11%. Simultaneous and partial tests showed that the model and the factors tested were significant. The results of this study indicate that the method used is effective in analyzing the relationship of economic factors to poverty and HDI, so it can be a reference for sustainable development policies in Papua.

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Keywords: Nonparametric Regression; Birespon; Spline Truncated; Papua Province; Percentage of Poor Population; Human Development Index
Funding: Universitas Lambung Mangkurat

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