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PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN ENSEMBLE EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION (EEMD)

*Rosinar Siregar  -  Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
Rukun Santoso  -  Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
Puspita Kartikasari  -  Departemen Statistika, Fakultas Sains dan Matematika, Universitas Diponegoro, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright 2021 Jurnal Gaussian under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract

 

Stock price fluctuations make investors tend to hesitate to invest in stock markets because of an uncertain situation in the future. One method that can solve these problems is to use forecasting about the stock prices in the future. Generally, the huge size of data non linear and non stationary, and it is difficult to be interpreted in concrete. This problem can be solved by performing the decomposition process. One of decomposition method in time series data is Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD). EEMD is process decomposition data into several Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) and the IMF residue. In this research, this concept applied to data Stock Price Index in Property, Real Estate, and Construction from July 1, 2019 to July 30, 2020 as many as 272 data. Based on the results of data processing, as many as 6 IMF and IMF remaining were used as IMF forecasting and the IMF remaining in the future. The forecast was performed by choosing the best model of each IMF component and IMF remaining, used ARIMA and polynomial trend.

 

Keywords: Time Series Data, Stock Price Index, EEMD, ARIMA, Polynomial Trend.

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Keywords: Time Series Data, Stock Price Index, EEMD, ARIMA, Polynomial Trend.

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