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@article{J.Gauss49157, author = {Safira Nuraini Putri and A'yunin Sofro}, title = {PREDIKSI SUHU UDARA DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR MENGGUNAKAN EXTREME VALUE THEORY}, journal = {Jurnal Gaussian}, volume = {14}, number = {1}, year = {2025}, keywords = {Suhu; Prediksi; Extreme Value Theory; Maximum Likelihood Estimation; Moment of Method}, abstract = {Forest and land fires are currently rife in Indonesia. This event is one type of ecological disaster caused by environmental and non-environmental activities. One of the impacts of forest and land fires is the loss of forest land in Indonesia. Based on data from 2024, the National Disaster Management Agency noted that East Nusa Tenggara is the province with the largest area of forest fires in Indonesia, which is 93572.19 hectares. To prevent this from continuing, it is necessary to predict weather data related to forest and land fires, namely air temperature. Air temperature can be analyzed using Extreme Value Theory to get the return level in the 2025-2028 return period. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation method was chosen because it has the advantage of estimating parameters accurately and effectively, especially in complex distributions such as the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution. The data used is the maximum air temperature in East Nusa Tenggara in 2020-2024. The results showed that the prediction of air temperature carried out by MLE has a fluctuating and accurate value until it reaches 36.40894°C in 2028.}, issn = {2339-2541}, pages = {149--156} doi = {10.14710/j.gauss.14.1.149-156}, url = {https://ejournal3.undip.ac.id/index.php/gaussian/article/view/49157} }
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