PEMODELAN REGRESI SPLINE TRUNCATED UNTUK DATA LONGITUDINAL ( Studi Kasus : Harga Saham Bulanan pada Kelompok Saham Perbankan Periode Januari 2009 – Desember 2015 )

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Abstract

Stocks are securities that can be bought and sold by individuals or institutions as a sign of ownership of any person nor bussines entity within a company. From the value of market capitalization, the stock is divided into 3 groups: large capitalization (big-cap), medium capitalization (mid-cap), and small capitalization (small-cap). The stocks has been fluctuated up and down because of several factors, one of them is inflation. Longitudinal data are observations made of n subjects that mutually independent with each subject which observed repeatedly in different period of time mutually dependent. Modelling longitudinal data of stock prices do with truncated spline nonparametric regression approach. The best model of spline depends on the determination of the optimal knot points which has minimum value of Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). The best of truncated spline regression is spline order 2 with 3 knot points for each of the subjects on longitudinal data. By using the model, the value of MAPE for each subject is 29,93% for PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk., 16,67% for PT Bank Bukopin Tbk., and 12,99% for PT Bank Bumi Arta Tbk..

 

Keywords: stocks, longitudinal data, truncated spline, GCV

Keywords: stocks, longitudinal data, truncated spline, GCV

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