APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

Dani Al Mahkya; Hasbi Yasin; Moch. Abdul Mukid

doi:10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614

DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614

APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

*Dani Al Mahkya -

Hasbi Yasin -

Moch. Abdul Mukid -

How to cite (IEEE): D. A. Mahkya, H. Yasin, and M. A. Mukid, "APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING," Jurnal Gaussian, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 605-614, Oct. 2014. https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614

How to cite (APA): Mahkya, D. A., Yasin, H., & Mukid, M. A. (2014). APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Jurnal Gaussian, 3(4), 605-614. https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614

How to cite (BCREC): Mahkya, D. A., Yasin, H., Mukid, M. A. (2014). APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Jurnal Gaussian, 3 (4), 605-614 (doi:10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614)

How to cite (Chicago): Mahkya, Dani A., Hasbi Yasin, and Moch. A. Mukid. "APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING." Jurnal Gaussian 3, no. 4 (2014): 605-614. Accessed : March 14, 2025. https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614

How to cite (Vancouver): Mahkya DA, Yasin H, Mukid MA. APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Jurnal Gaussian [Online]. 2014 Oct;3(4):605-614. https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614.

How to cite (Harvard): Mahkya, D. A., Yasin, H., and Mukid, M. A., 2014. APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Jurnal Gaussian, [Online] Volume 3(4), pp. 605-614. https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614 [Accessed : 14 Mar. 2025].

How to cite (MLA8): Mahkya, Dani, Hasbi Yasin, and Moch. Abdul Mukid. "APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING." Jurnal Gaussian, vol. 3, no. 4, 30 Oct. 2014, pp. 605-614 , https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614. Retrieved : 14 Mar. 2025.

BibTex Citation Data :

@article{J.Gauss8071,
    author = {Dani Mahkya and Hasbi Yasin and Moch. Mukid},
    title = {APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING},
    journal = {Jurnal  Gaussian},
  volume = {3},
    number = {4},
    year = {2014},
    keywords = {},
    abstract = { Forecasting is predicting the activities values that have been previously known. One of the methods that can be used to predict is Exponential Smoothing. In this study, exponential smoothing method used is Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Holt Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter (TES) Additive and Multiplicative models. Data used is value of Central Java Export from the period January 2006 until December 2013. There is some weighting parameters were evaluated in this method in order to produce a minimum error. Trial error method is used to obtain the weighting parameters. For SES method parameters evaluated were the parameters α, in DES method there are α and γ. And TES method there are α, γ and β. The value that will be minimize is Persentage Mean Absolute Error (MAPE). This study used the Golden Section method to find the parameter values that minimize the weighting function of MAPE. And built a Graphical User Interface (GUI) MATLAB in order to facilitate the analysis process. The Golden Section analysis found the best model is the TES Holt Winters Additive because it has a minimum value of MAPE. With Use the TES Holt Winters Additive will continue to predict the value of exports of Central Java 12 periods ahead with weighting parameters that minimize MAPE.      Keywords : Exponential Smoothing, Graphical User Interface (GUI), Export,                     Golden Section, Predict },
   issn = {2339-2541},   pages = {605--614}  doi = {10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614},
    url = {https://ejournal3.undip.ac.id/index.php/gaussian/article/view/8071}
}

Refworks Citation Data :

@article{{J.Gauss}{8071}, author = {Mahkya, D., Yasin, H., Mukid, M.}, title = {APLIKASI METODE GOLDEN SECTION UNTUK OPTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING}, journal = {Jurnal Gaussian}, volume = {3}, number = {4}, year = {2014}, doi = {10.14710/j.gauss.3.4.605-614}, url = {https://ejournal3.undip.ac.id/index.php/gaussian/article/view/8071} }

Citation Format:

Abstract

Forecasting is predicting the activities values that have been previously known. One of the methods that can be used to predict is Exponential Smoothing. In this study, exponential smoothing method used is Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Holt Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winter (TES) Additive and Multiplicative models. Data used is value of Central Java Export from the period January 2006 until December 2013. There is some weighting parameters were evaluated in this method in order to produce a minimum error. Trial error method is used to obtain the weighting parameters. For SES method parameters evaluated were the parameters α, in DES method there are α and γ. And TES method there are α, γ and β. The value that will be minimize is Persentage Mean Absolute Error (MAPE). This study used the Golden Section method to find the parameter values that minimize the weighting function of MAPE. And built a Graphical User Interface (GUI) MATLAB in order to facilitate the analysis process. The Golden Section analysis found the best model is the TES Holt Winters Additive because it has a minimum value of MAPE. With Use the TES Holt Winters Additive will continue to predict the value of exports of Central Java 12 periods ahead with weighting parameters that minimize MAPE.

Keywords : Exponential Smoothing, Graphical User Interface (GUI), Export,

Golden Section, Predict

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In Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian