Prediksi Harga Beras di Pasar Grosir Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters

*Ihsan Fathoni Amri orcid scopus  -  Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia
Supriadin Supriadin  -  Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia
M. Al Haris  -  Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia
Maria Febronia Ninu  -  Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia
Kamilah Citra Chumairoh  -  Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia
Ghafari Surya Purnama  -  Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia
Febrian Hikmah Nur Rohim  -  Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright 2025 Jurnal Gaussian under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
The staple food of most Indonesians is rice. Therefore, achieving food security the primary objective of national development requires maintaining the stability of rice prices and supplies. Because fluctuations in commodity prices could lead to either deflation or inflation, forecasting rice prices is therefore essential to maintaining the stability of this essential good. The rice price estimate in this study is based on the Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters approach. The monthly prices of rice from January 2018 to December 2023 served as the study's source of data. An indicator of forecast accuracy used is the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). With an average MAPE of 1.069% for the Additive Model and 1.065% for the Multiplicative Model, this study shows that the Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters technique yields good accuracy.

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Keywords: Rice Price; Forecasting; Triple Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters; Additive and Multiplicative Model.
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