DOI: https://doi.org/10.14710/j.gauss.14.1.62-73

PERBANDINGAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES HEURISTIC DAN CHENG PADA PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR NONMIGAS DI INDONESIA

*Tiani Wahyu Utami orcid  -  Department of Statistic, Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang, Jl. Kedungmundu, Tembalang, Semarang, Indonesia 50275, Indonesia
Indah Sulistiya  -  Statistic Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Jln Kedungmundu Raya No 18 Kota Semarang Indonesia, Indonesia
M. Al Haris  -  Statistic Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang Jln Kedungmundu Raya No 18 Kota Semarang Indonesia, Indonesia
Open Access Copyright 2025 Jurnal Gaussian under http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0.

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Abstract
Non-oil and gas exports contribute greatly to foreign exchange earnings and economic growth in Indonesia. However, with the unstable growth rate, forecasting is needed for policy making to encourage economic growth. Data on the value of non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia contains nonlinear patterns, so the forecasting method used is the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS). This research uses the FTS Heuristic and Cheng model method which is a development of the FTS algorithm. The Heuristic model has a difference in the addition of Heuristic knowledge which is assumed to influence the selection of a more appropriate fuzzy set during the defuzzification process, whereas in the Cheng model there is a weighting for each group of fuzzy relations that is the same. The data used is data on the value of non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in the period January 2013 to April 2024. Based on the research results, it was found that the best model obtained was the FTS Heuristic model with forecasting results in May 2024 using the FTS Heuristic increasing model of 21,495 US$ and FTS Heuristic decreasing is 17458 US$ with a MAPE value of 6.0398%.

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PERBANDINGAN METODE FUZZY TIME SERIES HEURISTIC DAN CHENG PADA PERAMALAN NILAI EKSPOR NONMIGAS DI INDONESIA
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Keywords: Fuzzy time series; Heuristic; Cheng; Non-oil and gas export value; MAPE

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