Analisis Kesinambungan Fiskal di Negara Anggota ASEAN Tahun 2000-2020

Abstract

The performance of the government in managing fiscal policies can be measured through fiscal sustainability, which can be seen from the primary balance ratio to gross domestic product. The primary balance is an indicator that reflects the government's ability to pay both the principal and interest on its debt using state revenues, which is influenced by several factors. This study aims to analyse the factors affecting fiscal sustainability, proxied by the primary balance in ASEAN member countries from 2000 to 2020. This study uses quantitative data in the form of panel data from 2000 to 2020 across 10 ASEAN member countries. The analysis tool used in this research is panel data regression with the Ordinary Least Squares approach corrected using the Newey-West HAC method. The results show that the variables of government debt, inflation, and the Covid-19 pandemic do not have an impact on the primary balance, while the variables of government spending have a negative effect, and government revenue has a positive effect on the primary balance. The government needs to refine the analysis of long-term fiscal sustainability with current conditions to anticipate possible shocks in the future due to global economic uncertainties.