PROYEKSI DATA PRODUK DOMESTIK BRUTO (PDB) DAN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) MENGGUNAKAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR)

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is an economic instrument that has an attachment and often used for economic development of a country. To predict these two variables there are several methods that can be used, one of which is a method of Vector Autoregressive (VAR). VAR method has some assumptions that the data to be foreseen must have an attachment, stationary in the mean and variance and the resulting error must meet the test of independence and normal distribution. In the early stages of identification done by considering the value of AIC as a determinant of the optimal lag value, which in this case lag 4 who came out as the optimal lag. Granger causality test as an attachment test between variable and Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF) as a stationary test. In the parameter estimation phase used Ordinary Least Square method (OLS) to determine the values of the parameters to be used as a model. After getting the model it is necessary to do verification on condition that the residuals must comply with the independence test and multivariate normal test. With a second fulfillment verification test is carried out projections for the next 5 years with a value of R-Square 64% to GDP and 48% for the variable FDI

Keywords: FDI, GDP, VAR, causality, independency, multivariate normal, R-Square